WP/09/261
Systemic Liquidity Management in the
U.A.E.: Issues and Options
Alexandre Chailloux and Dalia Hakura
© 2009 International Monetary Fund WP/09/261
IMF Working Paper
Monetary and Capital Markets Department and IMF Institute
Systemic Liquidity Management in the U.A.E.: Issues and Options
Prepared by Alexandre Chailloux and Dalia Hakura1
Authorized for distribution by Karl Habermeier and Abdelhadi Yousef
December 2009
Abstract
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent
those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are
published to elicit comments and to further debate.
The paper analyzes the U.A.E. s liquidity management framework in the context of the 2008
global financial crisis and the measures taken by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. to ease
liquidity pressures in the second half of 2008. Drawing also on an empirical analysis of data
for 15 U.A.E. banks through end-2008, the paper emphasizes the importance of making
available to banks additional instruments to manage their liquidity as well as to strengthen
the monitoring of a more comprehensive set of liquidity risk indicators. As regards the
former, the paper discusses the merits and scope for the U.A.E. to introduce a domestic bond
market.
JEL Classification Numbers: E5, E4
Keywords: Liquidity management, U.A.E.
Author s E-Mail Address: achailloux@imf.org and dhakura@imf.org
1
The authors are grateful to Klaus Enders, Simon Gray, Karl Habermeier, Gene Leon, Ananthakrishnan Prasad,
Gabriel Sensenbrenner, and Torsti Silvonen for helpful comments.
2
Contents Page
I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................3
II. Recent Economic Developments ..........................................................................................5
III. The Global Financial Crisis and the Initial Response..........................................................8
IV. An Analysis of the U.A.E. s Liquidity Management Framework .....................................11
A. Analyzing Systemic Liquidity Management...........................................................11
B. Analyzing the Systemic Liquidity Management Framework: the Case of the
U.A.E. ..........................................................................................................................14
V. Assessment of the CBU and MOF Contingency Liquidity Instruments and Liquidity Risk
Monitoring ...............................................................................................................................18
VI. The Link Between U.A.E. Banks Lending Rates and Liquidity Indicators .....................20
VII. Managing Liquidity Smoothly Across The Cycle While Supporting Market
Developments: Amending The CBU Monetary Policy Implementation Framework .............24
A. Supporting the Operation of the Money Market: Changing the Features of
Sterilization Instruments ..............................................................................................24
B. Consistency of the Proposed Changes with the Prospects for Future Regional
Financial Integration ....................................................................................................28
References ................................................................................................................................29
Tables
1. Trends in U.A.E. Banking Indicators...................................................................................21
2. Effects of the liquidity Indicators on Bank Lending Rates ..................................................22
Figures
1. Consumer Price Index ............................................................................................................5
2. Growth in Credit to the Private Sector...................................................................................6
3. GCC: Bank Claims on the Private Sector, 2007 ....................................................................7
4. Banking System Loans-to-Deposits Ratio 2003-2008...........................................................8
5. Three-month Interbank Rates, January 1, 2007-March 4, 2009 ............................................9
6. Selected U.A.E. Banks Loan to Deposit Ratios, 2007 and 2008 .........................................15
7. Certificates of Deposit .........................................................................................................16
8. Banking System Liquid Assets to Total Assets ...................................................................16
Appendix
1. Data Appendix .....................................................................................................................30
3
I. INTRODUCTION
Spearheaded by the development of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and backed by its oil wealth, the
U.A.E. has established itself as a global player in international trade, finance, and tourism.
The U.A.E. s impressive broad-based growth in recent years has been underpinned by the
government s outward-oriented development strategy. Continuous efforts to strengthen the
business climate have been instrumental in boosting both domestic and foreign investment.
High international prices for oil and gas, in conjunction with prudent macroeconomic
policies prices have helped to sustain the growth momentum. As a result, per capita income
amounted to US$42,520 in 2007, and the U.A.E. is now the second largest economy in the
Arab world after Saudi Arabia.
Notwithstanding these developments, the U.A.E. was adversely affected by the turmoil in
global financial markets. By the end of 2008, sovereign risk spreads had widened and stock
market indices had turned sharply lower the decline was most pronounced for real estate
companies. Large private capital inflows, driven by expectations of an appreciation of the
dirham vis-Ä…-vis the U.S. dollar, largely reversed over the summer of 2008. As a result of this
and other factors, the financial system came under liquidity pressures in the second half of
2008. The Central Bank of the U.A.E. (CBU) took a number of measures to ease the strains
and avert a ratcheting-up of liquidity pressures that could have threatened the solvency of the
U.A.E. s banks. These measures, while mostly successful, highlighted structural weaknesses
that could, if unaddressed, complicate the authorities smooth handling of monetary
conditions were a more adverse economic environment (with sustained low oil prices and/or
real estate price deflation) to emerge.
This paper analyses the U.A.E. s liquidity management framework through end-2008 in light
of the global financial crisis. In doing so, the paper builds on several studies (e.g. the recent
Institute of International Finance (IIF) and Basle Committee Publications (BCP) reports on
liquidity risks) that focus on the need for a better recognition of the liquidity management
risks and emphasize the need for a more comprehensive approach to analyze a country s
systemic liquidity framework, including its response in a period of stress. Specifically, the
paper highlights some limitations of the systemic liquidity management framework, related
to the reliance on central bank certificates of deposits (CDs) in the context of a fixed
exchange rate regime, and the asymmetry of this approach during episodes of liquidity
shortage. Cross-country experiences suggest that a standing liquidity providing instrument
such as a Lombard facility, even in countries faced with structural liquidity surpluses, offers
a valuable flexibility to deal with temporary liquidity shortages.
The paper also highlights the importance of strengthening the monitoring of vulnerabilities in
the financial system through the use of more eclectic yardsticks than the ones offered by the
traditional prudential and supervisory toolbox. In particular, the empirical analysis of key
banks liquidity pricing conditions in the U.A.E. confirms that there is some scope to
improve liquidity management oversight by actively using information on a broader set of
liquidity indicators. The empirical analysis in the paper shows that the U.A.E. banks with
high loans to deposit ratios--the only liquidity indicator currently monitored by the CBU--
tended to have lower lending rates, i.e. that the pricing of their liquidity actually reflected a
more aggressive lending stance. This suggests that the banks that increased the most
4
aggressively their lending during the boom period from 2002-mid-2008 were the most
exposed to a sudden lack of market access for alternative funding sources. This underscores
the scope for a strengthening of prudential supervision. At the same time, the lack of
sensitivity of bank lending rates to other indicators of liquidity (off-balance sheet items to
total loans and the ratio of liquid assets--mainly holdings of CDs--to total loans) paints a
more complex picture, and suggests a need to monitor an eclectic set of liquidity risk
management indicators to strengthen the supervisory oversight of banks liquidity
management. The lack of sensitivity of banks lending to the liquid assets ratio is consistent
with the inelastic and exogenous nature of the supply of liquid assets in the U.A.E. CDs are
the only liquid assets available and their supply is driven only by structural liquidity
conditions related to the foreign exchange regime rather than by the portfolio choices of
agents driven by risk/return preferences. The lack of sensitivity of lending conditions to off-
balance sheet variables is also not surprising as the crisis has shown a pervasive complacency
towards liquidity risk related to off-balance sheet commitments in most industrialized
countries, an issue that is currently on banking supervisors and regulators agendas.
The paper argues that the development of a domestic bond market would provide a
mechanism to manage systemic and private sector liquidity more smoothly across cycles. It
would also de-link the supply of highly liquid assets from the domestic liquidity
consequences of the exchange rate regime. Issuing T-bills could contribute to keep the supply
of securities constant, and could meet several purposes, beyond the point of the financing of
the budget. Increasing the supply of high-quality assets and, hence, of instruments that could
be used for sterilization purposes would also contribute to improve the operations of the
money market. It would also pave the way for the development of a genuine domestic
currency-denominated corporate bond market, provide useful pricing references and spur the
emergence of an interbank repo market. The paper highlights that developing the domestic
bond markets is important to broaden the U.A.E. s tools to conduct monetary policy both in
the context of the current fixed exchange rate regime and for any other exchange rate regime,
particularly with the U.A.E. s continued integration into the global financial market and in
the regional financial markets. Additional motivations for developing the domestic bond
market include that it could provide the U.A.E. with more diversified sources of financing
(i.e. foreign and domestic) for governments, quasi-government agencies and the private
sector which can be important given differences in the funding sources across federal and
emirate governments,2 3 and can be a mechanism for the local sovereign wealth funds (e.g.
Abu Dhabi Investment Council, ADIC) to provide financing to ailing quasi-public enterprises
through their holdings of bond issues.
2
The liquidity crisis in 2008 exposed financial vulnerabilities of the Dubai government and quasi-government
entities. The vulnerabilities were caused by their heavy reliance on borrowing from abroad and large
refinancing needs.
3
The Abu Dhabi government is the largest recipient of oil revenues. The development of a Treasury bond
market could, therefore, be seen as helping to ensure that the financing needs of the various levels of
government (federal and emirates) are met. A mechanism would need to be devised by which the various fiscal
entities coordinate the financing of their respective fiscal positions given their different sources of revenues and
that their financing needs will vary over time and across the emirates and federal government.
5
The paper is organized as follows. Sections II and III discuss the recent economic
developments in the U.A.E. and the contingency measures taken by the CBU and the
Ministry of Finance (MOF) to support the local financial system in the wake of the global
financial turmoil in the last four months of 2008. Sections IV and V analyze the U.A.E. s
underlying liquidity management framework and the contingency measures taken to address
the liquidity pressures in the second half of 2008. Section VI conducts an empirical
investigation of the relationship between banks lending behavior and conventional indicators
of liquidity. The empirical findings are used to support the analysis in Sections IV and V.
The final section of the paper discusses a proposal to develop the U.A.E. domestic bond
market which can act as a tool to manage systemic liquidity smoothly across cycles, facilitate
the operations of the money market and banks liquidity management, and accommodate the
demand for highly liquid assets in periods of heightened stress.
II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
The U.A.E. economy grew on average by about 9 percent over the 2003-2007 period. The
non-hydrocarbon sector recorded double digit growth during 2003-2006 and remained strong
at about 8.5 percent in 2007. Growth has been fairly broad-based with most sectors growing
at historically high rates. Construction and services have led the way, followed by
manufacturing. Growth in the hydrocarbon sector has tended to fluctuate in line with OPEC
policy. The U.A.E. s strong growth performance has been buttressed by high global oil prices
and strong domestic demand reflecting the rapid population growth (about 5 percent per year
on average) and large infrastructure investment projects in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. But
inflation has also risen, driven by housing shortages and other domestic supply bottlenecks,
strong aggregate demand, and high international commodity and food prices. Both fiscal and
external current accounts recorded large surpluses, and foreign assets grew rapidly.
Figure 1. Consumer Price Index
(annual percentage change)
15 15
Housing
Non-housing
CPI
10 10
5 5
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: U.A.E. authorities
6
The strong growth of the U.A.E. economy and high inflation would have called for a
tightening of monetary policy. However, the U.A.E. maintains a pegged exchange rate to the
U.S. dollar and an open capital account. Therefore, it has been forced to follow the United
States easing of monetary policy since mid-2007. As a result, monetary policy has added
stimulus to the economy with negative real interest rates providing additional momentum to
an already powerful boom in private sector credit. As oil export prices continued to rise in
2007 and the boom in the U.A.E. showed no signs of easing, foreign exchange market
participants started to speculate on a revaluation of the dirham. This triggered large capital
inflows into the U.A.E., particularly during the last quarter of 2007, further exacerbating
credit growth and inflationary pressures. As a result, the outstanding stock of credit to the
private sector, already the highest in the GCC by end-2007, rose further.
Figure 2. Growth in Credit to the Private Sector
180
50
160
140
40
120
100
30
80
20
60
40
Annual percent change, LHS
10
Credit in percent of non-oil GDP, RHS
20
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Central Bank of the U.A.E.
7
Figure 3. GCC: Bank Claims on the Private Sector, 2007
(in percent of GDP)
100 100
90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
Bahrain Kuw ait Oman Qatar Saudi U.A.E.
Arabia
Source: Country authorities
The boom in the U.A.E. was partly funded from an increase in borrowing from abroad. BIS
and U.A.E. balance of payments data suggests that external debt was $133 billion or 74
percent of GDP at end 2007. Although an inter-emirates breakdown of data on external
borrowing and external debt is not available, anecdotal evidence suggests that Dubai-based
corporations were the main borrowers on international capital markets.
The U.A.E. banking system appeared adequately capitalized and highly profitable through
mid-2008. Banks assets and profits increased sharply in 2007 and the capital adequacy ratio
stood at 13.3 percent by 2008, above the regulatory minimum of 10 percent, though
somewhat below the level of 2007. However, the further acceleration of the growth of credit
to the private sector, from a year-on-year growth of 40 percent in 2007 to 49 percent in 2008
obviously raised the risk of a future increase in nonperforming loans particularly given the
increased exposure of the financial system to consumer and real estate loans and the
uncertain outlook for asset prices following strong rises in the prices of real estate and stocks.
Indeed, the banking system s loans-to-deposits ratio continued to rise steadily even after it
had exceeded the regulatory limit of 100 percent by the end of 2007.
8
Figure 4. Banking System Loans-to-Deposits Ratio 1/ 2003-2008
(in percent)
130 130
120 120
110 110
100 100
90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Central Bank of the U.A.E.
1/ Loans are defined as claims on government, public sector entities,
private entities, and non bank financial institutions. Deposits are defined
as demand deposits, quasi-monetary deposits, nonresident deposits and
government deposits
III. THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE INITIAL RESPONSE
The turmoil in global financial markets that intensified at the end of the summer of 2008
negatively affected the U.A.E. with its financial system coming under substantial liquidity
pressures. U.A.E. banks witnessed significant capital outflows against the backdrop of
widening sovereign risk spreads, substantial declines in the Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock
markets most pronounced for real estate companies and a considerable tightening of
foreign financing for non-bank corporates which caused a slowdown in real estate and
construction. The capital outflows were exacerbated by the revision in the outlook by foreign
and domestic investors who had earlier speculated on a revaluation of the dirham. Banks had
used a substantial part of the earlier speculative inflows to finance longer-term investments.
Therefore, the reversal of the speculative capital flows contributed to the liquidity crunch.
The liquidity shortage was aggravated by the liquidity constraints in international money
markets and growing concerns about counterparty risk. As a result, there were upward
pressures on deposit rates and interbank rates rose sharply. Because of the peg of the dirham
to the U.S. dollar, short-term interest rates in the U.A.E. have broadly tracked the U.S.
federal funds rate. Accordingly, the U.A.E. interbank offer rate (EBOR) declined from 5.5
percent at the beginning of 2007 to 1.9 percent in June 2008 in conjunction with the easing of
monetary policy in the United States. However, reflecting the severe tightening of liquidity
conditions in the U.A.E. at the end of the summer of 2008, the EBOR rose to above 4 percent
and remains above the 3-month LIBOR rate on U.S. dollars.
9
Figure 5. Three-month Interbank Rates, January 1, 2007-March 4, 2009
(in percent per annum)
7
6
5
4
3
2
U.A.E. 3-month Ebor
1
USD 3-month Libor
0
1/1/2007 4/1/2007 7/1/2007 10/1/2007 1/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/2008 10/1/2008 1/1/2009
Source: Bloomberg
During the period March-September 2008 the central bank reacted promptly and pro-actively
by introducing several facilities aimed at improving the liquidity conditions in the banking
system within the constraints on monetary policy resulting from the exchange rate peg:
·ð The CBU initially took measures to ease U.S. dollar funding pressures. A swap
facility introduced in March was aimed at cushioning the impact of capital outflows
related to the rapid unwinding of positions taken in anticipation of a dirham
revaluation. The capital outflows sparked intense U.S. dollar funding pressures in
local markets. During the month of March the central bank provided commercial
banks with US$8 billion through this facility. From April to June, there was an
additional net flow of US$1.2 billion from the central bank to the commercial banks.
·ð The CBU later took measures to ease dirham funding pressures. Starting from
September 22, it allowed commercial banks to borrow against their reserve
requirements by waiving the obligation to meet reserve requirements on average over
a weekly cycle. Average reserve requirement shortfalls (U.S. dollar and U.A.E.
dirham aggregated) were charged 300 basis points above the repo rate, while plain
overdrafts (banks actually running negative balances on their CBU account) were
charged 500 basis points above the repo rate. On October 8, the central bank reduced
these spreads to 150 basis points and 300 basis points, respectively. Later
developments showed that this facility was not used to its full extent (about AED 50
billion), and that most banks drew on their reserve requirements only up to 20 percent
of the maximum amount. The stigma effects associated with greater than 20 percent
recourse which required administrative clearance by the CBU may have
discouraged banks from fully using this facility, thus undermining its potential
impact.
10
·ð The Liquidity Support Facility (LSF) that was announced on September 29 aimed at
furthering the impact of the earlier measures. Under this facility, dirham liquidity can
be obtained by banks against CDs with maturities of up to 14 days, and by an early
redemption facility for all unencumbered CD holdings. In addition, the CBU allowed
banks to borrow against any security collateral, provided the security presented was
deemed eligible. The interest rate on this new facility amounted to 300 basis points
over the repo rate. The recourse to this facility is conditional on: (i) the issuance of a
promissory note by the borrowing bank, (ii) no lending to nonresidents, subjecting
further credit to an expansion of the deposit base, (iii) the liquidation of money
market assets holdings to reduce obligations towards the CBU and the reinvestment
of any residual balance into CDs, and (iv) the commitment to stop the expansion of
administrative and general expenses for the duration of this liquidity support.
These measures somewhat eased funding pressures for banks, but the worsening of the global
financial environment detracted from the positive impact of these measures, in particular
because of the lingering tensions in global money markets. While LIBOR tensions abated
somewhat, USD offshore fixings remained extremely high in overseas offshore market. To
preempt spillovers from the global turmoil and address continued liquidity pressures in the
banking system, the government declared a blanket guarantee of deposits and inter-bank
lending for three years, and put in place an additional US$19.1 billion emergency liquidity
support fund (in the form of interest-yielding government deposits) to provide banks with
longer-term funding relief. More precisely:
·ð The Ministry of Finance announced on October 12, 2008 a blanket guarantee on local
commercial bank liabilities. The coverage of the guarantee was later amended to
include foreign banks. In the absence of a relevant CBU circular, the conditions
embedded in this guarantee have only been spelled out in general terms.
·ð On October 14, 2008, the Prime Minister of the U.A.E. and the ruler of Dubai HH
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum ordered the transfer of $19.1 billion
(Dhs 70 billion) to the Ministry of Finance. This facility, setup and financed by the
Ministry of Finance, was aimed at banks that were prepared to meet certain
conditions, which were negotiated between the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank
of the U.A.E. and the Ministry of Economy. The CBU wanted to require banks
acceding these facilities to (i) limit the growth of their assets; (ii) stop the financing of
new real estate projects and instead limit banks lending to existing projects and
infrastructure; (iii) channel their funding towards trade and self-liquidating assets
(such as trade receivables); (iv) commit to resume their operations in the interbank
market; (v) not acquire equity participation or debt securities; (vi) refrain from
lending to non-residents unless approved by the CBU, and commit to bring the loan-
to-deposit ratio below the statutory maximum of 100 percent within 6 months. As the
counterpart to the loan from the Ministry of Finance, the borrowing banks were to
issue a promissory note. The funding of this operation was ensured by the CBU s
11
purchase of a 5-year Treasury Bond issued by the Ministry of Finance, and bearing an
interest rate of 10 basis points in excess of the rate on 5-year U.S. Treasury Bonds,
with a quarterly coupon. Commercial banks pay 120 basis points in excess of the rate
on 5-year U.S. Treasury Bonds, or 4 percent, whichever is higher.
These measures inspired some confidence and trades were reported on short-term tenors
(maturities within one month), but the bulk of operations remained concentrated on the
overnight segment, and the EBOR remained elevated at end December 2008.4 It is likely that
these pressures have lingered as a result of the global increase in risk aversion stemming
from higher perceived systemic risk rather than because of any lack of effectiveness of the
CBU s measures. In this respect it should be noted that many emerging market countries
which experienced liquidity tensions of a similar nature to the U.A.E. (i.e. had difficulties to
roll-over overseas US dollar denominated short-term funding) obtained substantial relief
from the announcement of a inter-central bank swap agreement by the U.S. Federal Reserve
on October 30, 2008,5 which extended from the December 2007 agreement concluded
between the U.S. Federal Reserve and a set of G10 countries. The U.A.E. did not benefit
from this framework, and from the further easing of domestic money market fixings that was
observed in the countries that entered into a swap agreement with the United States following
the easing of off-shore dollar rates.
IV. AN ANALYSIS OF THE U.A.E. S LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK
A. Analyzing Systemic Liquidity Management
The IMF and the World Bank, in the context of their role in the surveillance of countries
financial systems, have placed the notion of systemic liquidity at the core of their work.
Systemic liquidity analysis is one of the key components of the review undertaken for FSAPs
(Financial Sector Assessment Programs) which focus on the linkages between financial
system developments and macroeconomic outcomes for member countries.
The notion of systemic liquidity, while at the center of the analysis of financial system s
vulnerabilities, is also one of the components of the FSAP that is the least documented. The
key building blocks of this analysis are well identified, such as central bank operations and
payment system infrastructures. Still, the analytical framework that was developed to
evaluate commercial banks assets resilience to various shocks (stress tests), to assess
supervisors role in the surveillance of financial systems (various ROSCs, BCPs), appear
more detailed and systematic than the various yardsticks that were used to envision the
vulnerability of systemic liquidity arrangements. This lack of a structured perspective
explains why in most cases systemic liquidity issues have been alternatively considered
4
Daily offers from ten banks (of which 5 are local) contribute toward the determination of the U.A.E. interbank
offer rate.
5
The Federal Reserve established temporary liquidity swap facilities with the following central banks: Banco
Central do Brasil, the Banco de Mexico, the Bank of Korea, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore. These
new facilities amounted to $30 billion for each signatory.
12
through a review of the central bank operations, through the deployment of safety nets in
case of liquidity tensions, or via a simple review of wholesale payment and security
settlement systems. One frequently omitted element was a review of how commercial
bankers micro-behavioral pattern in terms of liquidity management practices, in the context
of a given prudential or regulatory environment incentives set, could generate at the
aggregate level some cumulative phenomenon that could bring about some impact at the
macro-level of liquidity conditions.
The essence of the analysis of systemic liquidity is precisely that none of these aspects,
considered separately, can provide a comprehensive analysis of the risks to the system. Even
a cumulative assessment of the risks does
not give a complete sense of the potential
dynamics at play between central banks
frameworks for liquidity management,
asymmetric or systemic liquidity shocks,
and individual treasurers responses to
these shocks as they are shaped by the
prudential, regulatory and infrastructural
environment. A dynamic analysis,
focusing on the interplay between these
different factors in times of stress, could
provide an assessment that may differ
markedly, vulnerability-wise, from a
sequential review of these three pillars.
Several post-turmoil backward-looking analyses of the build-up of liquidity risk through
aggressive leverage by G10 commercial banks highlighted the fact that the traditional
approaches and yardsticks used to assess liquidity risks had failed. The IIF, in its February
2008 report, provided a cross-cutting view on how the analysis of liquidity risks was tainted
by many structural deficiencies, and issued a large set of recommendations to central
bankers, supervisors, treasurers and risk managers. These recommendations highlight the
limitations of the liquidity risk indicators and measures that were used as main yardstick by
risk managers and regulators, and advocated a more encompassing approach to liquidity risk,
as well as better reporting and governance.
This revised approach would focus on a revised perimeter, putting more emphasis on the
contingent liquidity risks stemming from off-balance sheet activities, on the risk and
limitations related to the functioning of secured markets like repo (including a more in depth-
review of collateral related issues, e.g. adequate pricing and collateral calls), and also a more
cautious approach toward the operational risks stemming from more complex funding
techniques such as cross-currency operations. It also underscored the need to link
dynamically the analysis of capital adequacy with liquidity stress tests6 and to make the
6
This point is also made in a compelling fashion in the 2008 report of the Counterparty Risk Management
Policy Group. The report emphasizes that to the extent that capital adequacy and rigorous stress-testing of
(continued& )
13
preparation of Contingency Funding Plans (CFP) and liquidity stress-tests compulsory, and
subject to recurrent supervisory reviews.
The Basle Committee on Banking Supervision published a review of its Principles for
Sound Liquidity Risk Management and Supervision in September 2008. This report lists a
set of updated recommendations reflecting the concerns conveyed by private sector
participants in the IIF report. In both cases, bankers and supervisors have reflected on the
role to be played by public sector entities, central banks and supervisors. They have
highlighted the gaps existing in the measure and analysis of liquidity risk, offered
suggestions to strengthen the reporting and governance framework within commercial banks,
and reviewed the amendments necessary for the monetary policy implementation framework
to handle better the macro-liquidity stress environment.7 International fora like the G20 have,
in recent months, taken note of some of these limitations, and have set up an agenda to
strengthen the analysis of systemic liquidity and draw up plans for necessary remedial action.
The analysis of systemic liquidity issues in the case of the U.A.E. offers an interesting
picture. Liquidity tensions were pervasive in the fall of 2008, and receded gradually
following various measures taken by the central bank. These tensions have illustrated the fact
that even systems underpinned by state-of-the art infrastructure, comprised of well-managed
banks and hinging on simple but robust monetary frameworks (i.e. a peg vis-Ä…-vis the US
dollar), and made credible by considerable resources, large external holdings and stable
governance, could be subject to considerable tensions. A more in depth review suggests that
these strengths concealed some vulnerabilities.
U.A.E. banks liquidity risk management capacity is constrained by an insufficient
diversification of the liability base, stemming from an embryonic money market and a
growing reliance on external funding. Some risks were insufficiently identified, notably in
the case of off-balance sheet commitments and the risks stemming from substantial reliance
on cross-currency funding. There also appears to be scope to enhance the authorities
analysis of the banking sector s liquidity risks, e.g. by complementing the use of
conventional yardsticks with a more risk-based analysis of potential sources of liquidity
stress.
liquidity are viewed as a single discipline, concerns about leverage and leverage ratios will be substantially
mitigated.
7
The IIF report in particular insisted on the need to have broader collateral eligibility frameworks in cruise-
speed, called for a greater transparency on the lender-in-last-resort operations, and suggested that central banks
contribute to the testing of banks Contingency Funding Plans by dry-runs of last-resort operations.
14
B. Analyzing the Systemic Liquidity Management Framework: the Case of the U.A.E.
Commercial banks liquidity management and local money market development
The features of the U.A.E. money market and of the CBU s liquidity management operations
have been shaped by the tight constraints set by the fixed exchange rate regime.8 The large
U.S. dollar balances held by local banks, their easy access to the U.S. dollar market, and the
credibility of the dirham s peg to the U.S. dollar, have always allowed U.A.E. banks to
manage their liquidity globally and to regard USD and AED financing as fungible and
readily available. With U.S. dollar liquidity readily available, banks did not have to worry
about raising cash in domestic currency. This, in turn, limited the authorities resolve to
develop a more active money market in local currency.9
Likewise, the protracted situation of ample liquidity in the system has contributed to limit
money market operations to essentially short-term tenors, and also limited the need of local
banks to diversify the potential funding sources and instruments used in the interbank market.
Hence the absence of a local repo market for government paper or on any other private debt
instrument. This lack of diversification in terms of interbank funding instruments and in
terms of tenors, has contributed to the vulnerability of the local banking system to a bout of
liquidity stress, particularly for banks not supported by an overseas parent. While foreign
banks can use a more diversified set of instruments to fund their asset expansion, thanks to
their franchise and the support from their parent bank, local banks had to rely on the growth
of their deposit base, and had to borrow abroad but with little insurance on the rollover
prospects in case of tensions (unlike subsidiaries of foreign banks). The chart below shows
that U.A.E. banks have become gradually stretched relative to their retail deposit base with
loans to deposit ratios of several banks moving well above 100 percent in 2008.10
Indeed, as illustrated in the previous section, the chronology of the liquidity squeeze that
began in the summer of 2008 suggests that tensions on the international U.S. dollar market
triggered the dirham liquidity tensions, and there is little doubt that the lack of depth of the
dirham money market contributed to exacerbate these tensions, as local Treasurers could not
easily find local funding alternatives nor could they rely on sufficient holdings of genuinely
liquid assets (Figures 7 and 8).
8
A regression of U.A.E. three-month interbank rates on U.S. three-month interbank rates with monthly data for
the January 2007 March 2009 period yields a coefficient smaller than one (0.68), thereby suggesting that there
is some scope for independent monetary policy action.
9
Anecdotal information suggests that U.S. dollar/dirham foreign exchange swaps and forwards are substantially
more liquid than straight dirham interbank unsecured loans. For instance, the daily turnover in the dirham
unsecured interbank market is estimated in the Dh. 2-3 billion range, essentially on short-term tenors, while the
turnover in the market for foreign exchange swaps is in the Dh. 4-7 billion range, with peaks up to 10 billion,
and with a broader set of maturities being actually traded. This discrepancy suggests a fair degree of reliance on
foreign banks for a smooth functioning of the market.
10
Funding shortfalls have been met through foreign borrowing and large public sector and wholesale deposits,
15
Figure 6. Selected U.A.E. Banks Loan to Deposit Ratios, 2007 and 2008
(in percent)
140
2007 2008
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: Bankscope database
See Appendix I for abbreviations of bank names. The definition of
the loan to deposit ratio used here is not exactly the same as the one
used by the Central Bank of the U.A.E.
The only dirham-denominated public sector securities available in the U.A.E. on an ongoing
basis are the CBU s certificates of deposits (CDs). The government does not issue securities,
in spite of a readily available high-quality infrastructure, including a Real Time Gross
Settlement system and a Central Security Depository. The CDs issued by the central bank are
widely used but their supply is tightly connected to the global systemic liquidity
environment, and this irrespectively of the level of demand for high-quality assets by
commercial banks. The subjection of CDs issuance to liquidity conditions (i.e. CDs
outstanding mechanically increase when commercial banks liquidity is favorable, and
diminishes when their liquidity gets tighter) can have a pro-cyclical impact in the event of
liquidity stress coupled with an increase in counterparty risk. The inverse correlation between
the overall liquidity situation and the supply of public sector high-quality assets is one of the
key weaknesses of the AED money markets. The recent experience indeed shows that the
outstanding amount of CDs decreased as liquidity tensions were building-up in the U.S.
dollar and later AED market, coincidently with the pullback of foreign funds from the
U.A.E..
I
Q
B
D
B
BD
C
B
NB
A
AK
CB
C
N
U
R
UA
NB
AD
16
Figure 7. Certificates of Deposit
(in billions of AED)
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: Central Bank of the U.A.E.
Figure 8. Banking System Liquid Assets to Total Assets
(in percent)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun-08
Source: Central Bank of the U.A.E.
8
8
8
8
8
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
08
-
-0
-
-
-
-
-
-
l
r
t-
b
p-
g-0
c
r
c
n
y-
n-
v
Ju
a
u
J
Fe
J
Se
Oc
De
Ma
Ap
Au
De
No
Ma
17
Central banks in other countries tried, during the first stage of the turmoil, to ease liquidity
tensions and unlock their money markets by increasing the supply of high-quality public
sector instruments, at a time when commercial banks increasing risk aversion propped-up
the demand for safe-haven types of assets.11 The U.S. Federal Reserve set up the TSLF
(Treasury Security Lending Facility) and the Bank of England set up the SLS (Special
Security Lending Scheme) to meet these needs. No such option was available in the U.A.E.
and the central bank had to resort to direct liquidity injections via cuts in the reserve
requirement scheme. 12
Performance of the CBU liquidity management framework under stress
Some features of the CBU normal liquidity management framework can in some
circumstances exacerbate the impact of some of the limitations created by the low degree of
development of the money market described above. For instance the current reserve
requirement scheme does not provide enough leeway to commercial bankers to face episodes
of liquidity tightness. The maintenance period of reserve requirements is too short to provide
a sufficient liquidity cushion to Treasurers in normal times. U.A.E. commercial banks are
obligated to meet reserve requirements on average over a weekly cycle. A maintenance
period of two weeks (Federal Reserve) or one month (ECB, Bank of England) gives more
space to exploit the averaging facility of reserves.
The daily issuance of CDs undermines somewhat the operations of the money market, as
Treasurers each day have an option to place their cash holdings on a full set of maturities. For
the asset side of their books, Treasurers can operate daily without having to maintain credit
lines with their banking counterparts, as they can invest their liquidity surplus on a daily
basis in CBU securities. Less frequent operations, via a weekly or bi-weekly issuance
calendar, would encourage banks to diversify their lending operations and better manage
their cash-flow mismatches over time, thereby contributing to support interbank exchanges.
The shift to an auction mechanism in November 2007 for the issuance of CDs (from a tap
system) is a welcome development, as it has strengthened the transparency of the price-
discovery process for the CDs primary market.
Another drawback of a liquidity management framework used to accommodate recurrent
amounts of excess reserves, that is, to run under-dimensioned sterilization operations, is that
market participants get used to operate in an environment where inefficient liquidity
management is not economically sanctioned.13 The management of liquidity in the context of
11
See Chailloux, Gray, Klüh, Shimizu, and Stella, 2008.
12
It should be noted, though, that even a deeper U.A.E. interbank market could have dried up during the crisis
owing to counterparty risk perceptions.
13
In an excess liquidity environment banks holding larger excess reserves than others are sanctioned by an
opportunity cost of keeping idle cash that is any case bound by zero. In a liquidity shortage environment the
treasurer falling repeatedly short of reserves on its account with the central banks (overdraft) generally has to
pay large penalty rates, bears a reputational costs and sometimes undergo higher supervisory scrutiny (because
(continued& )
18
an overall liquidity surplus (as was the case for the CBU in recent years) has specific
drawbacks that have resurfaced recently: (i) the lack of operational preparedness of banks to
a general tightening of liquidity conditions and the absence of contingency funding plans; (ii)
limited diversification of funding instruments; and (iii) difficulties to smooth out interest rate
developments in the context of unstable demand for excess reserves.14 One way to deal with
this asymmetry is to achieve in normal times more balanced incentives via a structural re-
balancing of the liquidity situation. Such a rebalancing would help bring about a more active
money market and more effective liquidity management operations by commercial banks. In
this perspective, it could be useful for the central bank to aim at creating a given level of
reserve money shortage which would enhance its control of money market interest rates and
overall money market conditions. This liquidity deficit would not only make the market
dependant on the CBU liquidity injections but also have the merit of enhancing the
functioning of money markets and improving commercial banks liquidity management
standards (see Section VII).
V. ASSESSMENT OF THE CBU AND MOF CONTINGENCY LIQUIDITY INSTRUMENTS AND
LIQUIDITY RISK MONITORING
The terms of the emergency AED 50 billion liquidity facility set up by the U.A.E. central
bank (on September 22) were somewhat restrictive. Although penalty rates were lowered
after the initial announcement to make the facility more attractive to banks, the facility
continues to be considered fairly restrictive in terms of its conditions and because drawings
in excess of 20 percent of reserve requirements require administrative approval and,
therefore, bear a stigma. This is also evidenced by the fact that, at the time of writing, banks
have reportedly only drawn up to 15 percent of the AED 50 billion facility.
The government s announcement in October 2008 that it will guarantee all deposits and
interbank lending for three years as well as the AED 70 billion facility were important to
boost confidence in the U.A.E. s financial system. The blanket guarantee can in principle be
expected to reduce the credit risk to bank deposits and other borrowing and hence, facilitate
access to unlimited low cost funding by the banks. However, international experience
suggests that the blanket guarantee and liquidity support can induce moral hazard. Barring a
closer real-time monitoring of banks, these measures could contribute to a deterioration of
banks assets and to further imprudent build-up of risky assets.
The issues raised by the blanket guarantee and liquidity support facilities underscore the
potential merit of a strengthening of the CBU s approach to liquidity risk oversight, and the
inefficient liquidity management may be a leading sign of mismanagement for supervisors). This highlights a
fundamental asymmetry of incentives between liquidity surplus and shortage environments.
14
Banks tend to plan more carefully their cash flow patterns, and determine more carefully their demand for
idle cash balances, when they are at risk of running an overdraft on their account with the central bank.
19
need to bring it more in line with internationally recommended best practices.15 The CBU
primarily monitors one liquidity indicator the loans and advances to stable resources ratio.
As part of the CBUs contingency measures to enhance banks oversight, the bank supervision
unit has increased the frequency with which banks collect and report information on the loans
and advances to stable resources ratio to a monthly basis and are requiring banks to provide
information on banks deposits to the CBU on a daily basis.
While these are welcome steps, there is some scope for strengthening the monitoring of
liquidity risk in the spirit of the Basle Committee work on liquidity risk management and the
various industry reports. For instance, the CBU could review a more comprehensive set of
liquidity risk management indicators, which includes indicators that capture the maturity
structure of liabilities by currency and the tenor of assets so as to ensure availability of
highly liquid assets as well as the potential contingent liability from off-balance sheet
items. It could also consider requiring higher frequency commercial banks reporting of these
liquidity indicators to the off-site supervisory units of the central bank, and ask banks to
prepare and submit contingency funding plans to the central banks off-site supervisory units.
Another crucial improvement would be to adopt a more risk-based approach to liquidity risk
and conducting regular and comprehensive liquidity stress-tests to the system.
A more thorough and real-time supervisory oversight of liquidity risk would also help to ease
some of the constraints set by the conventional liquidity ratio, as monetary authorities and
supervisors could rely on other indicators to detect looming liquidity tensions. The sole
reliance on a conventional liquidity ratio like the loan and advance to stable resources or
deposits (LD) ratio can have undesirable effects through the cycle. For instance, the need to
restore a 100 percent LD ratio when banks fall under liquidity stress can annihilate the
impact of liquidity support operations, and have no impact in terms of asset expansion. The
relative lack of impact of the various liquidity measures taken to encourage bank lending
have been attributed by some to the pro-cyclical effect of this ratio in situations when
regulatory forbearance is not permitted.16 Data as of end-January 2009 show that banks were
on average running an LD ratio of 113 percent that would require, barring any alternative
incremental funding source, a $31.7 billion additional liquidity support by the CBU. As
observed in most countries in the context of the financial turmoil, conventional liquidity
prudential ratios not only have little predictive value on a forward-looking basis, but can also
have adverse effects when compliance has to be ensured in the face of adverse developments.
15
See Principles for Sound Liquidity Risk Management and Supervision, Basel Committee on Banking
Supervision (September 2008).
16
Such restrictions were part of these measures in the U.A.E. since the conditions attached to the first (AED 50
billion) liquidity support package provided that the liquidity relief should not be used to expand credit, and
urged beneficiary banks to fall back into line within 3 months. See for instance, Standard Chartered Bank
U.A.E.: fixing liquidity, November 2008, and GCC, pro-cyclicality, recession and the way out, February
2009.
20
VI. THE LINK BETWEEN U.A.E. BANKS LENDING RATES AND LIQUIDITY INDICATORS
To support the analysis of the U.A.E. s liquidity management framework presented in the
previous two sections, this section empirically examines the relationship between bank
lending rates and various indicators of liquidity. Conventional wisdom would suggest that
tight liquidity conditions or excessive reliance on one single source of funding may have an
impact on banks lending behavior, and notably influence somewhat pricing conditions.
Lending rates vary widely among the U.A.E. banks. For instance, at end 2007, bank lending
rates ranged from 6.7 to 12.8 percent. This wide spread reflects different features and
strategies of individual banks.
The table below shows key trends in selected banking indicators. U.A.E. banks loans to
deposit ratios gradually increased over time, probably reflecting increased competition
among the banks.17 The size of U.A.E. banks balance sheets have expanded continuously by
an average annual median of 62 percent over the 2004-06 period before slowing markedly in
2007 and 2008. At the same time there has been a trend decline in banks lending rates. The
ratio of liquid assets to total deposits has declined from a peak in 2005. At the same time, the
ratio of off-balance sheet items to deposits increased from about 50 percent in 2000 to about
70 percent in 2008.
17
See also Boyd, De Nicolo, and Jalal (2009) who found a similar trend for U.S. banks in 2003 and for banks in
134 nonindustrialized countries for the period 1993-2004.
21
Table 1. Trends in U.A.E. Banking Indicators 1/
Loans to total deposits
Assets
(in percent)
(annual percentage change)
110
60
50 100
40
90
30
80
20
70
10
60
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Market share
Average lending rate-3-month EBOR rate
(in percent)
(in percent)
7
10
9
6
8
5
7
6
4
5
3
4
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Liquid assets to total deposits
Off balance sheet items to deposits ratio
(in percent)
(in percent)
40
75
35
70
30
65
25
60
20
55
15
50
10
45
5
0 40
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Bankscope database
1/ The charts reflect the median observation for the 15 banks included in the sample (see Appendix 1).
22
The aim of the regression estimations is to get a better understanding of some of the factors
influencing the lending-rate setting behavior of banks. The dependent variable is individual
bank s lending rate. The regressions are estimated on a panel of 15 U.A.E. banks for which
data is available in Bankscope for the period from 2000 to 2008. The regressions are
estimated using ordinary least squares and feasible generalized least squares assuming the
presence of cross-section heteroskedasticity. The OLS estimates account for about 82 percent
of the bank-by-bank variation in the lending rates. The data appendix sets out how the
variables are defined and constructed.
Table 2. Effects of the Liquidity Indicators on Bank Lending Rates 1/
Explanatory variable: OLS GLS
Lending Rate
Average deposit rate 1.13 ** 1.38 **
(0.22) (0.14)
Log(assets) -0.60 ** -0.49 **
(0.23) (0.18)
Loans to deposit ratio -0.073 ** -0.07 **
(0.01) (0.01)
Off balance sheet items to deposits ratio -0.005 -0.003
(0.004) (0.002)
Liquid assets to deposits ratio -0.005 0.001
(0.006) (0.005)
Loan loss provisions to total loans 0.25 0.50 **
(0.29) (0.17)
Market share 0.03 ** -0.01
(0.03) (0.02)
Total capital ratio 0.11 ** 0.07 **
(0.03) (0.02)
Constant 13.63 ** 12.77 **
(2.44) (1.80)
Three-month interbank offer rate 31.91 * 7.88
(18.87) (10.14)
R-squared 0.8159 .
N 103 103
1/ ** denotes significance at the 5% level and * denotes significance
at the 10 % level. Standard errors are in parentheses.
23
The regression results indicate that the sensitivity of U.A.E. bank lending to various
indicators of liquidity varies substantially. Lending rates are the most responsive to loan to
deposit ratios,18 the only indicator for which the central bank currently imposes prudential
regulations. But lending rates do not appear to respond in a statistically significant way to
variations in the ratio of off-balance sheet items to total deposits and to variations in the ratio
of liquid assets to deposits and short term funding.
·ð Banks with high loan to deposit ratios on average tended to have lower lending rates.
In the context of the fast growing U.A.E. economy, this finding suggests that the
U.A.E. banks tried to aggressively expand their loan portfolios over the 2000-2008
period to the point that several banks exceeded the prudential limit a loan to deposit
ratio of 100 percent set by the central bank. This suggests that the loan-to-deposit
ratio is a good proxy of banks commercial aggressiveness and as such, a good
leading indicator of potential liquidity risk.
·ð Banks appear not to have reflected off-balance sheet commitments in the price-setting
for their loans as the ratio of off-balance sheet items to total deposits did not
significantly affect lending rates. The ratio of off-balance sheet items to deposits can
be regarded as an indicator of future liquidity given that the off-balance sheet
liabilities could give rise to a drain on liquidity in the future. Ideally, the framework
for prudential supervision of banks should be designed in such a way that it forces
banks to take into account the effect of potential drains on their liquidity emanating
from off-balance sheet commitments in the pricing of their lending. This result may
also reflect the fact that on average banks off-balance sheet commitments have not
reached a magnitude that would give them a driving role in the determination of their
lending condition (because of the limited potential magnitude of contingent liquidity
draw downs). In any case, this result suggests that supervisory policy amendments
that would give incentives to factor in the impact of off-balance-sheet commitments
in the pricing behavior of banks would be desirable.
·ð The ratio of liquid assets to short term deposits did not significantly affect lending
rates. Typically, banks with substantial liquid assets, which can act as a buffer against
sudden withdrawals of deposits, would, ceteris paribus, tend to lower their lending
rates relative to the prevailing interbank interest rate. However, the estimation results
suggest that U.A.E. banks lending conditions, did not, on average, reflect this
relationship. Unlike what is the case in many countries the supply of highly liquid
paper is completely exogenous and determined by capital inflows and outflows
stemming from the interest rate differential with the Federal fund rate. The
outstanding amount of CDs is determined by the level of demand by the banks which
in turn depends on the overall liquidity of the banks. There is, therefore, no role for
18
The definition of loans to deposits used here is not exactly the same as the one used by the CBU.
24
liquid assets to influence bank lending behavior because the supply of CDs is too pro-
cyclical to be used by commercial banks in a risk cushioning perspective.19
The coefficients for the variables that capture average deposit rates, the three-month EBOR
rate, bank size, market share, and loan loss provisioning are broadly in line with expectations
and in line with findings for other countries from other studies (e.g. IMF, 2004). In particular,
·ð Higher deposit rates are associated with higher lending rates. Also, as expected higher
interbank rates which could control for variation over time of inflation and other
common exogenous factors that raise interest rates--including changes in U.S. interest
rates, owing to the peg of the dirham to the U.S. dollar--are associated with higher
lending rates.
·ð Larger banks tended to have lower lending rates, reflecting economies of scale. The
coefficient estimates indicate that the tripling of a bank s balance sheet was
associated with a reduction in lending rates by about 0.34-0.41 percentage points,
with all other things equal. At the same, the OLS estimation results suggest that
lending rates rose with larger market share. This implies that banks with larger market
shares tried to use their market power to achieve higher lending rates.
·ð Lending rates increased with the loan-loss provisioning ratio, but the coefficient is
only significant on the GLS estimation. Banks which have to provision a larger
fraction of their loans against losses have higher costs which are in turn reflected in
higher lending rates.
The results also show that higher capital adequacy ratios are associated with higher bank
lending rates suggesting that banks with higher capital adequacy ratios tended to be less
aggressive in their pricing of liquidity.
VII. MANAGING LIQUIDITY SMOOTHLY ACROSS THE CYCLE WHILE SUPPORTING
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: AMENDING THE CBU MONETARY POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
FRAMEWORK
A. Supporting the Operation of the Money Market: Changing the Features of
Sterilization Instruments
As discussed previously, the issuance of CDs by the CBU has two main drawbacks. First, the
high frequency of issuances of CDs creates a de facto reliance of the market on its daily
operations. Second, given the pegged exchange rate regime, issuances of CDs are
19
It is interesting to note that in most other countries the supply of high-quality risk-free securities in a context
of banking crisis is countercyclical, as the involvement of the government in managing the crisis brings about
short-term fiscal shortfalls that have to be financed via debt issuance, thus increasing the supply and hence the
relative amount of debt securities in the system.
25
mechanically determined by the structural liquidity situation. For instance, a protracted
period during which foreign exchange reserves would decrease (keeping other autonomous
factors unchanged) mechanically results in a depletion of the outstanding amount of CDs.
This depletion of the amount of CDs available reduces commercial banks ability to borrow
at the repo facility (CD is the only collateral accepted), and this in spite of the looming
liquidity tensions. In this context, the central bank would have to either cut reserve
requirements to release some liquidity (which is a static way to deal with changes in the
liquidity situation20), or to lend without collateral, both options having operational
drawbacks. Another drawback is the inverse correlation between liquidity and highly liquid
assets: the decrease in CDs outstanding when the systemic liquidity situation tightens goes
against commercial banks need to beef-up their holdings of high-liquidity credit-risk free
assets.
Increasing and stabilizing the supply of high-quality assets
Increasing the supply of high quality assets and, hence, of potential sterilization instruments
and reducing the dependency on the structural liquidity situation would help to improve the
operations of the money market. One possible way forward for the CBU to address these
issues would be to gradually substitute CDs with a scheme of T-bills issuance handled by the
CBU in coordination with the Treasury, and determine the outstanding amount of T-Bills to
meet liquidity draining needs and the goal of maintaining a stable cushion of short-term
government securities. This type of approach is used in many countries where the fiscal
situation does not require the existence of a public sector security market (e.g. Australia and
Singapore),21 but where short-term Treasury paper issuances are sometimes used for
sterilization purposes.22 The way to achieve proper sterilization is to keep the auction
proceeds on a separate account of the Treasury with the central bank.23 This account would
be a convenient substitute to the issuance of CDs.The merit of this solution would be to
achieve a steady issuance of short-term public sector securities, as different issuance motives
would kick-in and contribute to keep the supply of securities constant.
20
And also administratively cumbersome for commercial banks.
21
In addition to sterilization motives, there are several arguments for providing public debt instruments beyond
meeting governments funding needs, including: (i) for ensuring a sufficient supply of high-quality (liquid)
assets; (ii) fostering the development of the market for corporate bonds and short-term debt and providing the
basis for a yield curve; and (iii) jump starting the secondary market for fixed income securities via the creation
of repo and security lending markets. In the case of Australia for instance the decision to overfund the public
debt and keep on issuing in the context of rising fiscal surpluses was based on (i) the intention to provide a risk-
free yield curve to facilitate the pricing of private sector debt instruments (i.e. not closing the government debt
market ); and (ii) the need to create a cushion to brace for expected future fiscal shortfalls.
22
T-Bills issuance for sterilization purposes are successfully used in Uganda and Tanzania.
23
When the government issues the treasury bills, it incurs interest expenses. These could be borne either by the
government or the central bank, if the latter has enough seignorage or its financial position is otherwise
sufficiently sound.
26
The issuance of T-bills could also be an option worth pursuing to allow governments, quasi-
government agencies and the private sector to diversify toward domestic sources of funding
and reduce their reliance on external funding which is becoming increasingly difficult to
obtain in the current global environment. The need for issuing securities as a mechanism to
drain liquidity would decrease when reserve accumulation slows down (e.g. in the case of
lower oil prices) but create some space to issue securities as a short-term means to mobilize
fiscal resources in a context of lower oil prices.
The issuance of short-term securities would also accommodate an increased demand for
high-quality collateral arising from increasing credit risk aversion. The liquidity
management-driven component of the issuance of T-bills would correspond to the balance
left in the Treasury sterilization account (the fiscal need component of the supply of T-bills
would correspond to the outstanding amount minus the balance of the sterilization account).
Additional issuances of T-bills would either be used in case of temporary cash shortages by
the Treasury, or simply used as a cushion, to meet commercial banks higher demand. In that
case the proceeds would be kept by the Treasury which could decide to spend them as it
needs, or add them to the Sterilization Account balances (escrow account)/bocked account.
T-Bills for sterilization purposes: phasing-in strategy
In a normal environment, the issuance of T-Bills for monetary policy purposes could be
financed in two ways that would be neutral from the monetary standpoint. The T-bills could
be financed either by (i) reducing an existing monetary liability of the central bank, or (ii) by
creating a matching asset. In the first case, the sterilization account balances stemming from
T-Bills issuance could simply replace the gradually maturing stock of CDs. In case there is
no outstanding amount of CDs a reduction in reserve requirements would release the
liquidity necessary for commercial banks to purchase the new issue.
If no monetary liability reduction is feasible, the issue of T-Bills for monetary policy will
have to be balanced by a matching increase on the assets side. This provision of additional
liquidity (neutral from the monetary standpoint) could be implemented via short-term repos,
whose conduct would be facilitated by the expansion of the collateral pool materialized by
the T-bills issuance. For example, the central bank of Brazil in 2002 gradually discontinued
central bank papers issuance and replaced maturing central bank bills with an overfunding
scheme whereby the Treasury maintains large positive balances on its account with the
central bank (similar to a sterilization account). Coincidentally, the central bank purchased
some government security papers to complement the structural sterilization needs with
shorter-term fine tuning operations, these securities being used to drain or expand reserves in
the short run. The size of this portfolio for the CBU could be determined in theory by the
need for fine-tuning reverse operations like repos and reverse repos (unless it is used in a
structural liquidity provision perspective). Holding enough T-Bills collateral would require to
hold an outstanding amount of securities that would suffice to offset large variations in
autonomous factors.24 This open market portfolio could be backed by higher required
24
The calibration of this portfolio should be done on the basis of the usual volatility of autonomous factors
(Treasury account, bank notes, seasonal drains on FX reserve), so that the targeted size of the portfolio would,
(continued& )
27
reserves so as to keep the overall liquidity impact neutral. Higher level requirements (as
suggested in Section IV) could help achieve a better control of interest rates for it would
create a structurally short reserve position for the system as a whole.
Given the current tight liquidity condition (which give no room to reduce reserve
requirements nor to gradually replace the outstanding CDs that would have already matured),
an alternative approach could be to phase-in the issuance of T-bills by placing the proceeds
of the issuance not on the Treasury account with the CBU but with commercial banks. In this
case, the issuance of T-Bills would simply result in a shift in reserve money holding within
the system (commercial banks balances spent to purchase the securities would be placed
with another bank by the Treasury) and/or an asset re-allocation on commercial banks
balance sheets.25
The 5-year treasury notes purchased by the CBU from the MoF in November to back the
AED70 billion emergency facility could be a way to jump start these operations. Instead of
issuing CDs, and without having to set-up the proposed framework for the issuance of T-bills
for liquidity management purposes right away, the CBU could simply start to gradually sell
its holdings of the MoF s AED 70 billion notes to commercial banks. It would be a good
substitute to the issuance of CDs, provide long-term holdings of highly liquid securities to
banks, and provide a stable structural sterilization cushion to the CBU (unlike CDs, these
sales could potentially drain liquidity for 5 years). In addition, the CBU could also
repurchase these holdings to provide liquidity to the system, if necessary, either outright, or
via short-term repos, that could be used to accommodate short-term swings in commercial
banks reserve balances.
Modalities of the use of T-Bills for monetary policy purposes
The technical modalities would be fairly simple. The issuance schedule of these securities
could be less frequent, say once a week, and the issuance committee would make a decision
on the amount of securities to offer to meet, taking into account the non-liquidity
management related issuance. Prospective amounts would be kept within a range that would
give some leeway to react to short-term changes to foreign exchange reserves holdings.
Auction outcome announcements would detail the breakdown between liquidity management
related securities and other issuance motives. The type of tenor to issue would depend on the
liquidity management intentions of the CBU, and on the non-liquidity management-related
for example, cover 2 standard deviations of autonomous factors daily changes. A two standard deviation
confidence interval would permit to absorb 95 percent of daily potential shocks in autonomous factors. This
portfolio could also be adjusted not only to absorb the noisy component of autonomous factors daily changes,
but also adjusted on a monthly or quarterly basis to reflect well-established balance of payments seasonal
trends.
25
It is worth noting that in this case the Treasury would have to support a counterparty risk that ought to be
monitored and contained, either by a tight selection of counterparts and or by the use of collateralized
operations (based on non-government collateral) and other risk mitigation techniques (concentration limits,
margin calls, collateral substitution, etc.).
28
motives. Very-short-term liquidity management operations would be done using overnight
repo auctions whereby the CBU would repurchase these securities over a short period
(similar to the current repo).
B. Consistency of the Proposed Changes with the Prospects for Future Regional
Financial Integration
The U.A.E. s current monetary and foreign exchange regime may not have to undergo far-
reaching changes, were plans for future financial integration to materialize.26 Monetary
conditions in a fixed exchange rate regime with a fully open capital account are determined
by the anchor currency. Although minor adjustments are conceivable, more far-reaching
changes will have to be vindicated by the decisions made in the context of the GCC monetary
union (GCCMU). In all likelihood the monetary regime of the GCCMU will consist in a
merger of the regional pegs into one single fixed exchange rate against the US dollar. In this
context, the vulnerabilities highlighted above (in particular the weaknesses of the money
market) will have to be addressed too, in particular in the context of the competition between
the regional markets to become the key regional financial center (most efficient regional
center will gain a edge and attract operations).
As to the features of sterilization operations, the monetary union will require a central
coordination so that liquidity management operations are based on the liquidity situation
observed at the level of the GCC region. This would also force a unification of the features of
liquidity management instruments towards one set of GCC-wide tools. In this context the
regional central bank having put in place the most efficient framework will likely serve as a
benchmark for the operations of the GCC monetary authority, and as such help prepare its
local banks to the future environment. Such developments would necessarily have an impact
on the U.A.E. monetary framework, were the GCC monetary union to become the favored
alternative.
As to the use of T-Bills issuance for liquidity management purposes, it is difficult to foresee
whether a similar arrangement could be adopted for the operations of the future currency
union at the regional level. Irrespective of their membership in the monetary union the GCC
governments will likely, however, have to put in place a more pro-active cash management to
deal with risks of fiscal shortfalls without having to recourse to monetary financing, or to sell
sovereign wealth funds holdings in an adverse environment of depressed asset prices. In
addition, the monetary union and the extension of banks interbank operations to a regionally
unified money market will certainly increase commercial banks needs for high-quality
collateral. For these two reasons contemplating the changes outlined above would seem
opportune.
26
In the spring of 2009, the U.A.E. announced that it would not participate in the GCC Monetary Union project.
Longer-term prospects are still uncertain though, as it is likely that a regional monetary union would still
represent an important regional anchor, and certainly serve to catalyze further regional financial integration to
which countries outside the union may not be completely immune. In addition, there would be competition
between Gulf countries financial systems to improve their market infrastructures.
29
REFERENCES
Bank for International Settlements, 2008, Principles for Sound Liquidity Risk Management
and Supervision, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, available at
http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs144.htm.
Boyd, John, Gianni De Nicolo, and Abu Jalal, 2009, Bank Competition, Risk, and Asset
Allocations, IMF Working Paper 09/143 (Washington: International Monetary
Fund).
Chailloux, Alexandre, Simon Gray, Ulrich Klüh, Seiichi Shimizu, and Peter Stella, 2008,
Central Bank Response to the 2007 08 Financial Market Turbulence: Experiences
and Lessons Drawn, IMF Working Paper 08/210 (Washington: International
Monetary Fund).
Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group, CRMPG III, 2008, Containing Systemic
Risk: The Road to Reform available at http://www.crmpolicygroup.org/.
Institute of International Finance, 2008, Market Best Practices: Principles of Conduct and
Best Practice Recommendations Financial Services Industry Response to the
Market Turmoil of 2007-2008, available at www.ieco.clarin.com/2008/07/17/iff.pdf.
International Monetary Fund, 2004, Republic of Croatia: Selected Issues and Statistical
Appendix, IMF Country Report No. 04/251, available at
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2004/cr04251.pdf.
30
Appendix 1. Data Appendix
With the exception of total banking system assets which comes from the Central Bank of the
U.A.E., the data for the empirical analysis is obtained from the May 2009 update of the
Bankscope database. The construction of the variables is as shown in the table below.
Definition of Variables
Variable Description
Average loan rate Interest income divided by loans
Average deposit rate Interest expense divided by deposits and short term funding
Log(assets) Natural logarithm of bank assets
Loans to deposit ratio Loans divided by deposits and short term funding
Off balance sheet items to deposits ratio Offbalance sheet items divided by deposits & short term funding
Liquid assets to deposits ratio Liquid assets divided by deposits and short term funding
Loan loss provisions to total loans Loan loss provisions divided by loans
Capital ratio Total capital ratio
Market share A bank assets divided by total assets of the banking system from the monetary survey
Banks included in the sample are listed in the table below.
Banks in the sample
Bank name Abbreviation
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank ADCB
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank - Public Joint St ADIB
Al Masraf-Arab Bank for Investment & For Al
Bank of Sharjah BS
Commercial Bank International P.S.C. CBI
Commercial Bank of Dubai P.S.C. CBD
Emirates Bank International PJSC EBI
First Gulf Bank FGB
Mashreqbank Mashreq
National Bank of Abu Dhabi NBAD
National Bank of Dubai Public Joint Stoc NBD
National Bank of Fujairah NBF
National Bank of Umm Al-Qaiwain NBQ
RAKBANK-National Bank of Ras Al-Khaimah Rak
Union National Bank UNB
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