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«Ccmtinued from pagc 35 Asimilar patternapplies to other sports. What we think of as talent is actually a complicated combination of ability, opportunity and arbitrary advantage.

Does something similar apply to outliers ih other fields? Do they benefit from special opportunities, and do those opportunities follow any kind of pat-tern? The evidence suggests they do.

The magie number: 10,000 hours

In the early 90s, the psychologist K Anders Ericsson and two colleagues set up shop at Berlin’s elite Academy of Musie. They divided the violinists into three groups. The first group were the stars, the students with the potential to become world-class soloists. The second were those judged to be merely “good”. The third were students who intended to teach. AU the violinists were then asked the same question. Over the course of your career, ever sińce you first picked up the violin, how many hours have youpractised?

Everyone started playing at roughly the same time — around the age of five. In those first few years, everyone practised roughly the same amount

-    about two or three hours a week. But around the age of eight real differences emerged. The students who would end up as the best in their class began to practise morę than everyone else: six hours a week by age nine, eight by age 12, and up and up, until by the age of 20 they were practising well over 30 liours a week. By the age of 20, the elite performers had all totalled 10,000 hours of practice. The merely good had totalled 8,000 hours, and the futurę musie teachers 4,000 hours.

The curious thing about Ericsson’s study is that he and his colleagues couldn't find any “naturals”

-    musicians who could float effortlessly to the top while practising a fraction of the time that their peers did. Nor could they find “grinds", people who worked harder than everyone else and yet just didn’t have what it takes to break into the top tanks. Their

■ research suggested that once you have enough ability to get into a top musie school, the thing that dis-tinguishes one performer from another is how hard he or she works. That’s it. What’s morę, the people at the very top don't just work much harder. They work much, much harder.

This idea - that excellence at a complex task reąuires a critical, minimum level of practice -surfaces again and again in studies of expertise. In fact, researchers have settled on what they believe is a magie number for true expertise: 10,000 hours.

“In study after study, of composers, basketball players, fiction writers, ice-skaters, concert pianists, chess players, master criminals,” writes the neurologist Daniel Levitin, “this number comes up again and again. Ten thousand hours is equivalent to roughly three hours a day, or 20 hours a week, of practice over 10 years. No one has yet found a case in which true expertisc was accomplished in less. It seems that it takes the brain this long to assimilateall that it needs to knowto achieve true mastery."

This is true even of people we think of as prodi-gies. Mozart, for example, famously started writing musie at six. But, psychologist Michael Howe writes in his book Genius Explained, by the standards of maturę composers Możart's early works are not out-standing. The earliest pieces were all probably writ-ten down by his father, and perhaps improved in the process. Many of Mozarfs childhood compositions are largely arrangements of works by other com-I posers. Of those concertos that contain only musie "T ‘ original to Mozart, the earliest that is now regarded as a masterwork (No 9 K271) was not composed until he was 21: by then, Mozart had been composing concertos for 10 years.

the morning. In an average week in those years I was spending morę time in the Computer centre than on my classes. ” Just look at the st ream of opportunities that came Joy’s way. “At Michigan, I was probably programming eight or 10 hours a day," he says. “By the time I was at Berkeley, I was doing it day and night." He pauses for a moment to do the maths in his head, which doesn’t take long. "lt's five years," he says. "So, so, maybe... 10,000 hours? That’s about right.”

Is this a generał rule of success? If you scratch below the surface of every great achiever, do you always find the equivalent of the Michigan Computer Centre or the hockey all-star team - some sort of special opportunity for practice? Let’s test the idea: the Beatles, one of the most famous rock bands ever, and Bill Gates, one of the world's richest men.

^:    The Beatles - lohn Lennon, Paul McCartney,

: George Harrison and Ringo Starr - went to the US in : 1964, starting the so-called British Invasion of the : American musie scene. The interestingthingi:- how

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