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Russell

When examined as a univariate phase map movie, there was an indication that there were three distinct segments to the data that should be modeled independently. A total plot of all of the data presented in univariate phase map form is presented in Figurę 29. This plot shows some of the reasons why it was believed that there were three distinct segments.

Notice that in the upper left of the plot in Figurę 29, the data plots in about the same generał location. This represents the data in the earlier years. The data in the middle of the univariate phase map movie forms a couple of smali loops but also has distinctly broken away from the prior mass of data. These "loops" are not evident in the earlier data. The data from the later years essentially provides a nearly straight linę from the "loops.”

Cut points for the three distinct segments were chosen based solely on the character presented in the univariate phase map movie. As is the generał rule, the movie is viewed in smali chunks with no morę than 10 to 20 observations carried on the screen. Typical extracts from the movie for each of the three segments are presented in Figures 30,    31, and 32 for comparison

purposes.

Figurę 29. Extract of all observations of the univariate phase map movie from September 1981 to November 1992. Notice the change in character from the upper left to the lower right.

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