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lead to long-run losses. Figurę 2 shows that the average tax (including federal ticket taxes and PFCs) as a percentage of the base ticket price has climbed steadily, and is today about twice as high as when it was 8% through most of the 1980s. But the average dollar tax per ticket (in 2009 dollars) is today at about the same level it was in the profitable late 1990s. Over the last 30 years, the primary form of taxation has transitioned from a percentage excise tax to per-segment taxes. In the 1980s, the entire ticket tax was a percentage of the ticket value. The passenger facility charges were added in the early 1990s, the segment tax in 1997 and the September 11 security fee in early 2002, all based on the number of flights the passenger boards regardless of the farę paid. As a result, as real fares have declined sińce 1997, dropping significantly after the September 11 attacks, the tax burden increased as a percentage of the base farę.1
The problem seems to be not that taxes have risen, but that the base fares have fallen and stayed so Iow. Even the post-9/11 tax increase has mostly reverted in real terms. While taxes and fees have changed incrementally, the industry scalę has changed massively. In the standard long-run adjustment dynamics, it seems that the industry should have been able to achieve the scalę change necessary to incorporate and pass through these taxes. My own research (Borenstein, 201 lb) suggests that changes in passenger facilities charges are nearly entirely passed through to customers within two ąuarters.
Fuel costs increases have certainly been a significant component of losses in some years, most obviously 2008. Over the deregulation era, however, oil costs were highest in the first
4
The substantial fee increase in early 2002 raised revenue for significantly expanding security services after 9/11.
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