RESEARCH TEAM
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Senior Market Strategist
DAILY
TECHNICAL
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT
Senior Analyst
REPORT
28 September 2012
Cedric Poretti
Analyst
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Tel +41 58 721 90 00 Fax +41 58 721 90 01 info@migbank.com www.migbank.com Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
STRATEGY / ENTRY OBJECTIVE /
DIRECTION TIMEFRAME STOP ENTERED
POSITION LEVELS COMMENTS
L-TERM
EUR / USD Await fresh signal.
L-TERM Our strategy has been stopped.
GBP / USD
L-TERM Long 3 78.18 79.47/80.62/83.00 76.89 20/09/2012
USD / JPY
L-TERM
USD / CHF Await fresh signal.
M-TERM
USD / CAD Await fresh signal.
AUD / USD L-TERM Short 3 1.0430 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820 1.0630 11/09/2012
M-TERM
GBP / JPY Await fresh signal.
L-TERM Buy limit 3 99.81 102.12/103.86/107.5 97.5
EUR / JPY
EUR / GBP L-TERM Await fresh signal.
L-TERM Long 3 1.2121 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474 1.1998 18/09/2012
EUR / CHF
GOLD L-TERM Short 3 1775 1733/1690/1657 1817 27/09/2012
SILVER L-TERM Await fresh signal.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade.
When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
EUR / USD
Bouncing on the 200 day moving
average.
" EUR/USD bounced on its 200 day moving
average yesterday. Monitor the hourly resistance
at 1.2971 (25/09/2012).
" The lack of a base formation or sell-off
suggests that the recent Euro strength is a
rebound within an underlying downtrend. The
current weakness near the 38.2% retracement of
the decline from May 2011 to July 2012 suggests
limited short-term upside potential and the start
of a new down phase.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: l.luyet@migbank.com | phone: +41 58 721 94 26
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
GBP / USD
Rising back towards strong resistance
area.
" GBP/USD rose sharply yesterday. However,
given the short-term overbought readings and
the strong resistance at 1.6302, we expect a
longer corrective phase.
" GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term
horizontal range. The resistances given by 1.6302
and by the long-term down trendline (linking the
August 2009 top with the April 2011 top) suggest
limited short-term upside potential.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: l.luyet@migbank.com | phone: +41 58 721 94 26
Our strategy has been stopped.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
USD / JPY
Still sliding.
" USD/JPY continues to decline. It is now
approaching its recent low at 77.13. Hourly
resistance is at 77.94 (25/09/2012 high).
" USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming
process and is oversold in the medium-term time
frame. We therefore expect to see a phase of
strength in the short-term. Medium-term
resistance is at 80.62.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: l.luyet@migbank.com | phone: +41 58 721 94 26
Long 3 at 78.18, Objs: 79.47/80.62/83.00, Stop: 76.89 (Entered: 2012-09-20)
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
USD / CHF
Resistance at 0.9420 has held thus far.
" USD/CHF has failed to break its resistance at
0.9420 (13/09/2012 high, see also up trendline).
Monitor the hourly support at 0.9329 (25/09/2012
low). Other support can be found at 0.9239.
" The break of the support at 0.9423 opens the
way for a medium-term move towards the next
horizontal support at 0.9043. It also strengthens
the resistance area between 0.9951 (61.8%
retracement of the decline from June 2010 to
August 2011) and 1.0067 (01/12/2010 high).
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: l.luyet@migbank.com | phone: +41 58 721 94 26
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
USD / CAD
Bearish engulfing pattern favours short-
term weakness.
" USD/CAD completed a bearish engulfing
pattern yesterday suggesting short-term
exhaustion of the buying pressure. Short-term
support is at 0.9726 (19/09/2012 low).
" The succession of lower highs since March
2009 favours an underlying bearish bias. Indeed,
the break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way
for a medium-term move towards the strong
support at 0.9407. A break of the resistance at
0.9949 is needed to invalidate this bias.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: l.luyet@migbank.com | phone: +41 58 721 94 26
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
AUD / USD
Bounce is approaching the resistance at
1.0519.
" AUD/USD has successfully tested its short-term
support at 1.0323 (11/09/2012 low). However, we
still favour a move towards the strong support at
1.0177. Short-term resistance is at 1.0519
(21/09/2012 high).
" The proximity of the down trendline, coupled
with medium-term oscillators near overbought
levels, favour a significant phase of weakness.
However, should a break to the upside out of the
symmetrical triangle occur, it would force us to
review our strategy.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: l.luyet@migbank.com | phone: +41 58 721 94 26
Short 3 at 1.0430, Objs: 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0630 (Entered: 2012-09-11)
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
GBP / JPY
Testing short-term up trendline.
" GBP/JPY has broken its support at 126.20
(07/09/2012 high) and is now testing its short-
term up trendline. Hourly resistance is at 126.71
(25/09/2012 high).
" GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term
declining channel since April 2010. The sharp
reversal near the high of its rising channel
favours a medium-term move towards the strong
support at 123.70.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: l.luyet@migbank.com | phone: +41 58 721 94 26
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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Tel +41 58 721 90 00 Fax +41 58 721 90 01 info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
EUR / JPY
Support area at 99.52 has held thus far.
" EUR/JPY tested successfully its support at
99.52 (see also up trendline) yesterday. A short-
term bounce is likely. Hourly resistance is at
101.05 (25/09/2012 high). Other support is at
97.89 (28/08/2012 low).
" EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend.
However, the medium-term oscillators favour a
test of this downtrend.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: l.luyet@migbank.com | phone: +41 58 721 94 26
Buy limit 3 at 99.81, Objs: 102.12/103.86/107.5, Stop: 97.5
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
EUR / GBP
Pickup in buying pressure near support
area.
" EUR/GBP has posted three straight intraday
bullish reversals (from 25 to 27 September)
indicating pickup in demand. The resistance for
a bounce is likely given by 0.8017 (19/09/2012
low).
" We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend
move within a long-term downtrend. The recent
signs of weakness near the strong resistance
area between 0.8095 (29/06/2012 high) and
0.8169 (see also down trendline) favour a new
medium-term phase of weakness.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: l.luyet@migbank.com | phone: +41 58 721 94 26
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
EUR / CHF
Pausing.
" EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5
September, which increases the likelihood of
further medium-term strength.
" The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF,
which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
" In the long-term, we remain of the view that if
EUR/USD can gather some downside
momentum then it may be a step too far for the
SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: l.luyet@migbank.com | phone: +41 58 721 94 26
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18)
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
GOLD
Rising back towards strong resistance
area.
" Gold rose sharply yesterday invalidating the
hourly succession of lower highs and lower lows.
" The "shooting star" on 21 September and the
strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803
suggest limited short-term upside potential.
" Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong
support at 1523. Still, given the proximity of the
aforementioned resistances and the current
overextended rise, a phase of weakness is likely.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: l.luyet@migbank.com | phone: +41 58 721 94 26
Short 3 at 1775, Objs: 1733/1690/1657, Stop: 1817 (Entered: 2012-09-27)
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
SILVER
Rising back to its recent highs.
" Silver rose sharply yesterday. Prices are now
close to the resistance implied by its previous
highs near 35.17.
" Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above
its key support. The break of the long-term down
trendline favours a lengthy sideways move.
Long-term horizontal resistance at 37.48.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: l.luyet@migbank.com | phone: +41 58 721 94 26
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or Limitation of liability
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without notice. MIG Bank makes no representations (either expressed or
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implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or
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All opinion is based upon sources that MIG Bank believes to be reliable but
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such claim.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit
will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 15 | 15
Tel +41 58 721 90 00 Fax +41 58 721 90 01 info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
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